December 14, 2006

Taking IT Analyst Advice With A Huge Grain of Salt

The Associated Press reports that Gartner says that blogging will peak in 2007.

I have always respected the research of IT Analyst firms such as Gartner, Yankee, IDC, AMI and others. They invest millions of dollars in research, studies and thinking about the future of technology. However, sometimes (maybe in trying to capture headlines) they go a bit too far.

Blogging is NOT going to peak in 2007.

Email has evolved and grown in waves. Blogging will follow a similar trajectory.

The AP writes Most people who would ever dabble with Web journals already have. Those who love it are committed to keeping it up, while others have gotten bored and moved on, said Daryl Plummer, chief Gartner fellow.

How 100% wrong Gartner is.

There are millions of small businesses, in the US alone, who are not blogging. They have web sites and will (slowly) blog in the coming months and beyond.

Not just blogging, but more small businesses will take on RSS, podcast, blogs and social networking. Not all of course, but a set.

There are the fast moving - moderate tech adopters, those who shun technology and those who are neutral. The bloggers will come from group 1 and some from group 3.

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